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发生了什么？又暴涨？
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Re: 发生了什么？又暴涨？
Financial stocks are falling below a key chart level to warn the worst is yet to come
10/01/26 2:38 PM
Treasury yield curve is steepening as rates continue to rise, and that's been a bad sign for bank stocks in the past
Higher long-term rates could continue to push the XLF and the banking sector lower over time.
Financial stocks have struggled over the past several weeks, and it's becoming clear the decline may not be over.
The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF XLF has fallen to a critical technical-support level that appears to be breaking, which could lead to an additional 5% decline on top of the nearly 9% drop it has seen since peaking on Sept. 3.
At first, the flattening yield curve appeared to be contributing to the sector's weakness. Surprisingly, though, the yield curve has started to steepen again, as the 2-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y stabilizes and the 5-, 10- and 30-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD30Y rates continue to rise.
Either the XLF simply isn't reflecting the change in steepness yet, or something else is happening in the marketplace. What stands out is that in the summer of 2023 and early-2025, the financial sector performed poorly when the yield curve steepened. This could indicate the same pattern is repeating, and it is worth a closer look.
Comparing the performance of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF and the U.S. 10-year/U.S. 2-year spread (in blue) since May 2022.
Breaking down the steepening yield curve
A breakdown of the movement between the 10-year and the 2-year yields shows that when the 10-year rose faster than the 2-year in the summer of 2023, the XLF did poorly. Meanwhile, when the 2-year fell faster than the 10-year in early 2025, the XLF also did poorly. These were two different rate environments, but the outcome was the same. The former may have reflected higher nominal and real yields, along with a higher term premium, which together may have pushed up mortgage rates and other borrowing costs. The latter suggests concerns about an economic slowdown.
The movement we are seeing now in rates is like what we saw in 2023. It could help explain the weakness in banks, which may reflect worries about the damage higher rates could do to future loan growth and, if rates rise too far, the overall economy.
Comparing the XLF (black), the 10-year yield (blue) and 2-year yield (green) since March 2022.
If that is the case, higher long-term rates could continue to push the XLF and banking sector lower over time, because the move in banks appears to be about more than the yield curve.
Technical clues
The technical charts reveal that the financials find themselves in a delicate situation, with the XLF currently breaking below a support level at $53.50 and now facing a potential decline to even lower prices, perhaps even to around $50.75, which would also allow the XLF to fill a price gap in the charts that was created on June 4.
The positive for the XLF is that it is currently oversold, with a relative strength index that has fallen to just 22, while its price has fallen to the lower Bollinger band. That doesn't mean the XLF can't keep falling, but it does suggest a period of consolidation may be approaching, or even a retest of resistance at $53.50.
The RSI, a momentum measure, is seen as entering oversold territory when it falls below 30. And Bollinger bands mark moves of two standard deviations above and below a moving average.
Trading chart for State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF showing Bollinger bands and RSI.
If the weakness seen in the financials has to do with the higher rates and the potential economic impacts that may come with them, then a decline in the 10-year rate or even a pause in its rise may help to slow the decline in the financial names. However, the higher rates go and the longer they stay elevated, the more damage the sector is likely to incur, especially as nervousness likely builds ahead of earnings season.
Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital Management and a long-only investor focused on macroeconomic themes. He analyzes long-term macro trends and short-term market risk using technical analysis, fundamentals and options-market positioning. See here for further disclosures.
-Michael Kramer
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-01-26 1438ET
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
金融类股票跌破关键支撑点，预示更糟的情况还在后头等着呢
2026/10/01 下午 2:38
长期美债收益率持续上升，使得美债收益率曲线重新变陡，而历史上这通常对银行股是坏消息。
更高的长期利率可能会在未来继续压低 XLF 与整个银行板块。
过去几周金融股表现疲弱，而且现在越来越明显：下跌可能尚未结束。
XLF跌破关键技术支撑
XLF跌破关键技术支撑道富（State Street）旗下的金融精选行业 SPDR ETF（XLF）已跌至一个关键技术支撑位，并且该支撑似乎正在被击穿。
若跌破确认，可能在此前自 9 月 3 日高点以来已下跌近 9% 的基础上再跌约 5%。
起初，收益率曲线趋平似乎是金融板块疲弱的原因。
但令人意外的是，收益率曲线开始重新变陡：
- 2 年期收益率趋于稳定
- 5 年、10 年、30 年期收益率持续上升
这意味着：
要么 XLF 尚未反映曲线重新变陡的变化，要么市场中有其他因素正在发生。
值得注意的是：
在 2023 年夏季与 2025 年初，当收益率曲线变陡时，金融板块表现都很差。
这可能意味着同样的模式正在重演，值得进一步观察。
拆解收益率曲线变陡的影响
拆解收益率曲线变陡的影响观察 10 年期与 2 年期收益率的变化可以发现：
- 2023 年夏季：10 年期收益率上涨速度快于 2 年期 → XLF 表现不佳
- 2025 年初：2 年期收益率下降速度快于 10 年期 → XLF 同样表现不佳
虽然两次处于不同的利率环境，但结果一致。
2023 年的情况可能反映：
- 名义与实际利率更高
- 期限溢价上升
→ 推升房贷利率与其他借贷成本
2025 年的情况则暗示：
- 市场担忧经济放缓
当前利率走势与 2023 年类似，可能解释银行股的疲弱：
市场担心更高利率会伤害未来贷款增长，甚至拖累整体经济。
技术面信号：XLF处于脆弱位置
技术图表显示金融板块处境微妙：
- XLF 跌破 53.50 美元支撑位
- 可能进一步跌向 50.75 美元
- 该位置也对应填补 6 月 4 日形成的图表缺口
积极因素是：
- XLF 已严重超卖
- RSI（相对强弱指数）跌至 22
- 价格触及布林带下轨
这并不意味着 XLF 不会继续下跌，但暗示可能出现：
- 一段盘整期
- 或重新测试 53.50 美元阻力位
RSI 低于 30 被视为进入超卖区；
布林带标示价格相对移动平均的两个标准差范围。
利率若回落，金融股跌势或放缓
如果金融股的疲弱确实源于更高利率及其潜在经济影响，那么：
- 10 年期收益率下降
或 - 其上升趋势暂停
可能有助于减缓金融股的下跌。
但利率越高、维持高位越久，金融板块可能遭受的损害越大，尤其是在财报季前市场紧张情绪升温的情况下。
作者信息
作者信息Michael Kramer 是 Mott Capital Management 的创始人，专注宏观主题的长期投资者。他通过技术分析、基本面与期权市场定位来分析长期宏观趋势与短期市场风险。
本文内容由 MarketWatch（道琼斯旗下）制作，与道琼斯新闻及华尔街日报独立运营。
Re: 发生了什么？又暴涨？
现在股市的强度和宽度都非常差，不知道破了多少年的记录。
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
只要把几个最强的公司的股价拉上去，大盘就能猛涨，这种涨法很容易导致大盘的大起大落，庄家操纵大盘越来越容易了。
美股只有高科技，其它大部分都是凑数的，不值得花功夫研究。
shepherd17 写了： 今天, 14:13Financial stocks are falling below a key chart level to warn the worst is yet to come
10/01/26 2:38 PM
Treasury yield curve is steepening as rates continue to rise, and that's been a bad sign for bank stocks in the past
Higher long-term rates could continue to push the XLF and the banking sector lower over time.
Financial stocks have struggled over the past several weeks, and it's becoming clear the decline may not be over.
The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF XLF has fallen to a critical technical-support level that appears to be breaking, which could lead to an additional 5% decline on top of the nearly 9% drop it has seen since peaking on Sept. 3.
At first, the flattening yield curve appeared to be contributing to the sector's weakness. Surprisingly, though, the yield curve has started to steepen again, as the 2-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y stabilizes and the 5-, 10- and 30-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD30Y rates continue to rise.
Either the XLF simply isn't reflecting the change in steepness yet, or something else is happening in the marketplace. What stands out is that in the summer of 2023 and early-2025, the financial sector performed poorly when the yield curve steepened. This could indicate the same pattern is repeating, and it is worth a closer look.
Comparing the performance of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF and the U.S. 10-year/U.S. 2-year spread (in blue) since May 2022.
Breaking down the steepening yield curve
A breakdown of the movement between the 10-year and the 2-year yields shows that when the 10-year rose faster than the 2-year in the summer of 2023, the XLF did poorly. Meanwhile, when the 2-year fell faster than the 10-year in early 2025, the XLF also did poorly. These were two different rate environments, but the outcome was the same. The former may have reflected higher nominal and real yields, along with a higher term premium, which together may have pushed up mortgage rates and other borrowing costs. The latter suggests concerns about an economic slowdown.
The movement we are seeing now in rates is like what we saw in 2023. It could help explain the weakness in banks, which may reflect worries about the damage higher rates could do to future loan growth and, if rates rise too far, the overall economy.
Comparing the XLF (black), the 10-year yield (blue) and 2-year yield (green) since March 2022.
If that is the case, higher long-term rates could continue to push the XLF and banking sector lower over time, because the move in banks appears to be about more than the yield curve.
Technical clues
The technical charts reveal that the financials find themselves in a delicate situation, with the XLF currently breaking below a support level at $53.50 and now facing a potential decline to even lower prices, perhaps even to around $50.75, which would also allow the XLF to fill a price gap in the charts that was created on June 4.
The positive for the XLF is that it is currently oversold, with a relative strength index that has fallen to just 22, while its price has fallen to the lower Bollinger band. That doesn't mean the XLF can't keep falling, but it does suggest a period of consolidation may be approaching, or even a retest of resistance at $53.50.
The RSI, a momentum measure, is seen as entering oversold territory when it falls below 30. And Bollinger bands mark moves of two standard deviations above and below a moving average.
Trading chart for State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF showing Bollinger bands and RSI.
If the weakness seen in the financials has to do with the higher rates and the potential economic impacts that may come with them, then a decline in the 10-year rate or even a pause in its rise may help to slow the decline in the financial names. However, the higher rates go and the longer they stay elevated, the more damage the sector is likely to incur, especially as nervousness likely builds ahead of earnings season.
Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital Management and a long-only investor focused on macroeconomic themes. He analyzes long-term macro trends and short-term market risk using technical analysis, fundamentals and options-market positioning. See here for further disclosures.
-Michael Kramer
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-01-26 1438ET
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
金融类股票跌破关键支撑点，预示更糟的情况还在后头等着呢
2026/10/01 下午 2:38
长期美债收益率持续上升，使得美债收益率曲线重新变陡，而历史上这通常对银行股是坏消息。
更高的长期利率可能会在未来继续压低 XLF 与整个银行板块。
过去几周金融股表现疲弱，而且现在越来越明显：下跌可能尚未结束。
道富（State Street）旗下的金融精选行业 SPDR ETF（XLF）已跌至一个关键技术支撑位，并且该支撑似乎正在被击穿。
若跌破确认，可能在此前自 9 月 3 日高点以来已下跌近 9% 的基础上再跌约 5%。起初，收益率曲线趋平似乎是金融板块疲弱的原因。
但令人意外的是，收益率曲线开始重新变陡：
- 2 年期收益率趋于稳定
- 5 年、10 年、30 年期收益率持续上升
这意味着：
要么 XLF 尚未反映曲线重新变陡的变化，要么市场中有其他因素正在发生。值得注意的是：
在 2023 年夏季与 2025 年初，当收益率曲线变陡时，金融板块表现都很差。
这可能意味着同样的模式正在重演，值得进一步观察。
观察 10 年期与 2 年期收益率的变化可以发现：
- 2023 年夏季：10 年期收益率上涨速度快于 2 年期 → XLF 表现不佳
- 2025 年初：2 年期收益率下降速度快于 10 年期 → XLF 同样表现不佳
虽然两次处于不同的利率环境，但结果一致。
2023 年的情况可能反映：
- 名义与实际利率更高
- 期限溢价上升
→ 推升房贷利率与其他借贷成本2025 年的情况则暗示：
- 市场担忧经济放缓
当前利率走势与 2023 年类似，可能解释银行股的疲弱：
市场担心更高利率会伤害未来贷款增长，甚至拖累整体经济。
技术图表显示金融板块处境微妙：
- XLF 跌破 53.50 美元支撑位
- 可能进一步跌向 50.75 美元
- 该位置也对应填补 6 月 4 日形成的图表缺口
积极因素是：
- XLF 已严重超卖
- RSI（相对强弱指数）跌至 22
- 价格触及布林带下轨
这并不意味着 XLF 不会继续下跌，但暗示可能出现：
- 一段盘整期
- 或重新测试 53.50 美元阻力位
RSI 低于 30 被视为进入超卖区；
布林带标示价格相对移动平均的两个标准差范围。
如果金融股的疲弱确实源于更高利率及其潜在经济影响，那么：
- 10 年期收益率下降
或- 其上升趋势暂停
可能有助于减缓金融股的下跌。
但利率越高、维持高位越久，金融板块可能遭受的损害越大，尤其是在财报季前市场紧张情绪升温的情况下。
Michael Kramer 是 Mott Capital Management 的创始人，专注宏观主题的长期投资者。他通过技术分析、基本面与期权市场定位来分析长期宏观趋势与短期市场风险。
本文内容由 MarketWatch（道琼斯旗下）制作，与道琼斯新闻及华尔街日报独立运营。
